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SHOWDOWN: The Tim Tebow Hype

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Will Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow Ever Win an NFL Playoff Game? "NO WAY," counters Chris Mac of TheChrisMack.com.

Tim Tebow, assuming he stays healthy, will have a long career in the NFL. He will author many more comebacks, and some will be more dramatic and in bigger games than anything he's done so far.

Tebow though, as clutch as he has been for the Denver Broncos, will never win in the playoffs. His game simply isn't built to do so. And the numbers back that up. Specifically, two numbers that will tell you just how effective a mobile quarterback is at burning defenses not just with his legs, but by keeping his head up and capitalizing on open receivers down field while on the run.

Those numbers are sack percentage (Sk%) and net yards per attempt (NYPA). Tebow's numbers currently sit at 5.3 NYPA (Currently 31st out of 34 eligible QBs) and 10.9 Sk% (dead last). Obviously, an NFL quarterback wants to avoid being sacked. However, if taking an extra sack every game is a byproduct of mobility and making big plays on the move, it will show itself in the NYPA metric. Tebow's numbers point to a mobile passer who is suffering the risk/reward byproduct of using his legs but has not yet figured out how to get the ball downfield while on the move.

For example, last year's Super Bowl quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, are both masters of extending a play and using the extra time their mobility affords them to get the ball downfield. They are 4th and 12th, respectively, all-time in net yards per attempt despite career Sk% of 7.1 and 8.7. In fact, only ONE quarterback in the Super Bowl era has won a championship with a NYPA under Tebow's current 5.3 (Terry Bradshaw in 1974 with 4.3). And no quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl in a season where his Sk% exceeded 10.6.

To win games in the modern day NFL you must either avoid sacks altogether (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady) or make up for the yards lost while extending plays by making those Rodgers-Roethisberger-esque plays.

Tebow does neither of those. And because of it, he won't be winning in the playoffs anytime soon, if ever.

Follow Chris Mack online at TheChrisMack.com.

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