Odds Are…

By Walter Villa

With Ben Roethlisberger suspended for at least the first four games of the season, there is one big question on the minds of Steelers fans:

Who will start at quarterback in Big Ben's absence?

Coach Mike Tomlin won't reveal the answer yet and likely won't until late August or early September. But oddsmakers are not afraid to make an educated guess.

And according to bodog.com, veteran Byron Leftwich, at 5-9 odds, is the most likely to assume the throne. Dennis Dixon is the second choice (8-5), and Charlie Batch is the longshot (7-1).

Steve Holder, who covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for The St. Petersburg Times, is not surprised by those odds, even though Leftwich struggled last season with the Bucs. Leftwich started just three games—all losses—before losing the job to rookie first-round pick Josh Freeman.

"I think Leftwich will play better for the Steelers because they have a stronger team around him than the Bucs did last season," Holder said. "I think the fact the Steelers traded for him shows they have a certain comfort level with Leftwich."

True, the Steelers made an investment in Leftwich, but the price was low—a 7th-round pick—and Dixon may turn out to be a better fit. Leftwich is not mobile and prefers to stay in the pocket and take a hit if need be before delivering the pass.

Combine Leftwich's lack of elusiveness with a Steelers offensive line that has allowed a high sack total the past couple of years, and you have a recipe for disaster.

"Leftwich has an incredible arm," Holder said. "But it is negated if he doesn't have time to throw the ball."

With no ground game to speak of and opponents "teeing off"  on Leftwich last year, as Holder puts it, the 30-year-old veteran completed just 54.2 percent, a career low. His QB rating of 71.2 was also lower than his career number of 79.6.

Dixon, 25,  offers the Steelers a contrasting style. He is younger, much more elusive but vastly less experienced. But he showed potential in his only career start, a 20-17 overtime loss at Baltimore last season.

Playing in a hostile environment against the Steelers' biggest rival, Dixon threw 33 yards for a touchdown and ran 24 yards for another score before suffering a crushing interception in overtime.

Alex Marvez, who covers the NFL for FOX Sports.com, said Tomlin faces an "intriguing" choice at QB between Leftwich and Dixon.

"Leftwich is the more finished product," Marvez said. "Dixon has more upside, but does that matter if the Steelers believe Roethlisberger is still the long-term answer at the position?

"Assuming that's the case, Tomlin needs to go with the quarterback who is least likely to commit turnovers and make major mistakes while relying on the defense and running game to compensate for a limited passing game.

"I'm giving the edge to Leftwich in this regard, although he needs to perform better than in the team's first minicamp to keep Dixon at bay."

Batch, 35, is the wild card in the QB race. He has been injury prone the past few years and has not started a game since 2007, a 27-21 loss to the Ravens. However, in his three previous starts with the Steelers, the team was 3-0 in 2005 and 2006.

All this turmoil at quarterback has dropped the Steelers from the ranks of the NFL's favorites. The Colts and Saints are the top picks to win this season's Super Bowl, both at 9-1 odds. The revamped Jets and the still-strong Chargers are next at 10-1, followed by the Cowboys (12-1), Patriots (12-1), Packers (14-1), Vikings (14-1), Ravens (16-1) and Eagles (18-1).

That leaves the Steelers as the 11th choice at 20-1, just ahead of the 25-1 Texans. The longest shots are the Bills, Rams and Bucs, all at 100-1.

The Ravens are the top choice (3-2) to win the AFC North, followed by the Steelers (2-1), Bengals (11-4) and Browns (10-1). The over-under for wins reads like this: 

Ravens - 9.5 wins
Steelers - 8.5 wins
Bengals - 8 wins
Browns - 6.5 wins

Perhaps the goofiest "prop bet" available on bodog.com—and the perfect way to end this odds-heavy story—is one that asks: What will Roethlisberger do first (before Feb.29, 2012)?

Get Married - 20-1
Father a Child - 20-1
Win a Super Bowl with the Steelers - 12-1
Leave the Steelers - 4-5
Go to Prison - 100-1
None of the above - 11-10

The Steelers are hoping option No. 3 is Roethlisberger's destiny.