NOT JUST YET
Pirates headed in right direction but not likely to end losing skid
By Jim Lachimia

In the opening line of the Coldplay song "Lost," lead singer Chris Martin proclaims "Just because I'm losing doesn't mean I'm lost." And I've listened to the "Viva La Vida" CD so much that line is stuck in my head, and it's started to make me think about the Pirates. Let me explain.

I know it's fashionable to bash the Buccos and I understand why people do it. I'm as aware as anyone about the team's 17 straight losing seasons, but after two years of watching the still-new regime headed by president Frank Coonelly and general manager Neal Huntington, I believe they know what they're doing and they have the organization heading in the right direction.

Unfortunately, that doesn't mean I expect the embarrassing streak to end in 2010. It's probably still a year or two too soon for that to happen.

However, just because they're losing doesn't mean they're lost. Better days lie ahead. But here are the main reasons that .500-baseball isn't likely in our immediate future:

NOT ENOUGH OFFENSE

The Pirates weren't exactly a run-scoring machine with Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson in the line-up, and they absolutely weren't after those players were traded away last summer. The team went 18-40 from July 1st on when two guys who just arrived on the major league scene-Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones-became their most productive hitters.

Not surprisingly, the N.L. champion Phillies led the league with 820 runs scored last year. That was with the benefit of bashers such as Ryan Howard (.279, 45 HR, 141 RBI), Chase Utley (.282, 31 HR, 93 RBI), Raul Ibanez (.272, 34 HR, 93 RBI) and Jayson Werth (.268, 36 HR, 99 RBI). Now that's a powerful line-up.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was dead last in the N.L. with 636 runs scored.

Huntington knows the Pirates won't have an explosive offense in 2010 either, but his goal is to have a solid line-up one through eight. He and manager John Russell want guys that will make pitchers work, not give away at bats, and get their share of big hits - whether they go over the fence or not.

"Just because you have a 35-home run guy doesn't mean you're going to win," Huntington said. "We want to be a talented, deep line-up. We'll take someone hitting 35 home runs, but we want to make sure there are seven other guys around him that are tough outs and give pitchers fits."

An improved offense this year would have McCutchen, newcomer Akinori Iwamura and Lastings Milledge getting on base regularly and guys like Ryan Doumit, Jones, Jeff Clement and Andy LaRoche driving them in at a healthy clip. But the Pirates would be doing well if they moved up to the middle of the pack in runs scored this season.

NO EXCEPTIONAL STARTING PITCHING

Not yet, anyway.

Paul Maholm and Zach Duke are legitimate major leaguers, but the reality is they're more workhorse, inning-eater type guys than top-of-the-rotation guys. To use Philadelphia as an example again, Maholm and Duke are a lot more like Joe Blanton than they are Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee or now Roy Halladay.

The Pirates need an ace, or a couple of aces. Ross Ohlendorf has a chance to become one. But let's not make the mistake of anointing him a great pitcher after one solid season as so many of us did with the likes of Oliver Perez, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny.

Charlie Morton's stuff is so tantalizingly good at times, there's hope that he can put it all together and become a big-time winner. And Brad Lincoln was throwing so well for Double-A Altoona last summer, scouts from other organizations were calling Huntington anonymously and recommending that he promote the former first-round pick to the majors. So Lincoln has a chance to be a really good one too.

But the Pirates don't have anybody like that yet, a guy that's so good the entire club feels better on the days he pitches. This starting staff is more likely to have decent balance one through five than a stud or two at the top of the rotation.

TOO MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

*Can Doumit stay healthy for an entire season and become the quality offensive-oriented catcher the Pirates believe he can be?

*Can Clement play well enough defensively at first base to keep him in the line-up and give his left-handed bat a chance to pump balls over the Clemente Wall at PNC Park?

*Is Iwamura over the knee injury that limited him to 69 games with Tampa Bay last year? And will he prove to be an effective two-way player at second base?

*Can Ronny Cedeno become consistent enough to remain the everyday shortstop?

*Will LaRoche-who Doumit called his "pick to click" this year-increase his home run and RBI output? Or is he merely keeping third base warm until Pedro Alvarez arrives?

*Will Milledge reap benefits from rededicating himself to his career and be the terrific all-around player everyone thought he would become when he was a hotshot prospect with the Mets?

*Is the power we saw from Jones-a guy that spent 10-plus years in the minors-going to be there again? Or will the league figure him out?

*Will Octavio Dotel-who has enjoyed his best seasons in the majors as a set-up man-be an improvement over Matt Capps as the team's new closer?

Naturally, not all of these questions are going to be answered affirmatively, but it's going to be interesting, and likely entertaining, to watch them play out.

"The talent is there. Now it's about us coming together and realizing that talent," Doumit said. "It all starts with pitching, and I think our starting five and our bullpen are going to keep us in games, and we have some very capable hitters. As an offense, we're going to step up this year, everybody is going to know their role, and I think we're going to surprise a lot of people.

"No one likes to lose and it's no secret, the streak and everything. It's a blemish. It's a dark spot on everybody's record. No one wants to hear about it, but that's the reality. But there are a lot of young, cocky guys on this team who are coming into their own, and that's what you need. You have to have a little bit of a chip on your shoulder and walk with a little bit of a swagger to be successful, and we've got that."

Maybe so, but it's still unlikely that will translate into 81 or more victories in 2010.