Why The Steelers May Win It All
And Why They Won't
By Jerry DiPaola

Even the most loyal Steelers fan can sit down with a pen and paper and quickly list a half-dozen reasons why his favorite team won't be holding up the Super Bowl Trophy on Jan. 26 in San Diego.

The trouble with counting out the Steelers, who won only two of five games in one sorry stretch in the second half of this season, is that every team has an equal number of warts.

Especially in the AFC where a new contender emerged every week.

Predictions? Are you kidding? After 14 games, the Steelers would have the best record in the AFC, had they not lost to the pathetic Houston Texans.

That's reason enough to pick another team to win the Super Bowl.

Here are some others:

Aging Roster

Before the season began, the Pittsburgh Sports Report noted that age is creeping like moss over some key members of the team, especially at running back, safety and offensive tackle.

Not that turning 30 is a bad thing—some of us do our best partying at our Big 3-0 Bash—but football players often have seen their better days by that time.

That might be the case with running back Jerome Bettis, who is having his worst season as a Steeler and will turn 31 on Feb. 16. Bettis still can be a powerful battering ram and is, perhaps, the greatest big back in the NFL since Jim Brown.

But Bettis has been plagued by injuries the past two seasons and had only one 100-yard game from Nov. 11, 2001, until the brink of Christmas 2002. Plus, the direction of the offense toward a more high-flying, aerial personality has not helped Bettis' numbers, and the team had its first season since 1995 without a 1,000-yard rusher.

And playoff teams—successful ones, anyway—normally need a strong running game to survive in the cold, wintry winds of January. Without Bettis coming close to 100 yards, the Steelers will not win a playoff game.

Offensive left tackle Wayne Gandy, 32, and strong safety Lee Flowers, 30, were not offered contract extensions during Steelers president Dan Rooney's great check-signing binge of 2002. That tells you what the organization thinks of two veterans who often have their finger on the emotional pulse of the team.

All in all, the Steelers have 10 key players who are either beyond 30 or on its shady side. They include five members of the defense where quickness counts more than savvy.

o   Outside linebacker Jason Gildon regressed into an average pass rusher this season, although he might be the best the Steelers have.
o   Safeties Brent Alexander, 31, and Flowers still show a great knack for knowing how to play the game, but keeping up with speedy wide receivers in coverage isn't what they do best.
o   Defensive end Kimo von Oelhoffen, 32, can be a force on the line and he played his best game of the season on Dec. 15 against Carolina. But von Oelhoffen first came into the league in 1994. That's a long career for a guy who constantly pounds against other guys for a living.
o   Cornerback Dewayne Washington, 30, was an interception machine from 1998-2000 (14), but he has totaled just three since then.

Experience is a great thing come playoff time, but can the Steelers take their aging roster and successfully withstand a long, arduous push to the Super Bowl?

Tommy Maddox

If you don't count the XFL, Arena League and the 1991 John Hancock Bowl, Maddox has never played in a meaningful postseason football game.

Plus, his numbers fell off slightly after suffering brain and spinal concussions in Nashville on Nov. 17.

Prior to the injury, he had thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of seven starts, including four against playoff-bound Atlanta. But he was shut out of the end zone by the Texans and threw just one scoring pass against the Panthers. Meanwhile, he threw at least one interception and was sacked at least once in every game through Dec. 15. The Texans dropped him six times and New Orleans four. The offensive line needs to protect Maddox with greater efficiency, and he has to stop throwing interceptions.

The stakes rise considerably in January, and so does the competition.

Life Without Kordell

OK, maybe this one is a stretch. But hear me out ...

Stewart was the starting quarterback through two playoff runs, and he tossed eight interceptions to two touchdown passes. But he also added an element to the Steelers offense that often can make the difference in a close game.

Stewart has rushed for four postseason touchdowns, including a 40-yard sprint to beat New England, 7-6, on Jan. 3, 1998—the longest postseason scoring run in team history. He averages 5.2 yards every time he tucks it and runs in the playoffs.

Maybe the Steelers will miss that; maybe they won't.

Streaky Defense

The Steelers' defense started improving from its mediocre status when the opposition turned out to be teams such as the Texans and Panthers—the two most offensive offenses in the NFL. The defensive line was dominant and the passing defense smothered Texans quarterback David Carr and Rodney Peete and Chris Weinke of the Panthers.

Still, the Steelers played five consecutive games late in the season without an interception, and it reverted back to its miserable ways of the late 1990s when it seldom could come up with a big play on defense. If you recall those seasons with clarity, defensive failings had as much to do with the Steelers missing the playoffs in three consecutive seasons as anything Stewart did or didn't do.

Finally, there is not enough speed in the secondary, and no amount of coaching or preparation can compensate for that shortcoming.

Of course, you can also make a case that the Steelers are as solid as any team in the AFC where there is no dominant team in the first place.

Here are some factors working in the Steelers' favor:

Mediocre Conference

It seemed like a new AFC team would emerge every week with the tag of Super Bowl favorite.

But, even with all their problems, the Steelers were at or near the top of the overall conference standings almost from the moment that Maddox replaced Stewart at quarterback.

The AFC field just isn't that good.

o   The Raiders are even older than the Steelers.
o   The Dolphins' Jay Fiedler hardly has the look of a Super Bowl quarterback.
o   The Titans win games with an average defense and an unspectacular offense, winning games on the sheer will of quarterback Steve McNair.
o   The Patriots have run out of magic.
o   The Chargers peaked too soon.
o   The Broncos are inconsistent on defense and at quarterback with Brian Griese.
o   The Colts couldn't beat the Steelers in the regular season.

The Steelers have many of those same problems, but that's the point. The team that can overcome itself will be in the Super Bowl.

And hey, somebody has to represent the AFC—why not Pittsburgh?

Weather And Heinz Field

The Steelers are 12-4-1 at Heinz Field since their new, sandy playground opened 16 months ago.

Teams such as the Dolphins, Chargers and Colts could be at a distinct disadvantage, if they have to come into Pittsburgh on a windy, wintry day. Plus, it looks like the Steelers may have finally found themselves a kicker.

Rookie Jeff Reed doesn't seem to know that Heinz Field is where good kickers go to die.

Kendrell Is Back

Inside linebacker Kendrell Bell, the 2001 NFL defensive rookie of the year, finally regained the explosion that marked his play last season when he got over a serious ankle injury and became familiar with James Farrior, his partner at inside linebacker.

Bell grew up next to Earl Holmes last year, and then Holmes left for the Cleveland Browns in free agency. Farrior, who came from the New York Jets, is a better player than Holmes, but Bell had grown accustomed to Holmes. After about 10 games, he started feeling comfortable with Farrior and was spending more time in the other team's backfield as a result.

His presence on defense could vault the Steelers among the upper echelon of AFC playoff teams.

Don't Dread The Spread

The Steelers couldn't handle the spread offenses thrown at them by the Patriots and Raiders at the beginning of the season, and they started 0-2. But they learned how to combat the spread, belting would-be pass catchers as soon as they got their fingertips on the football, shoving them off their routes when possible and rushing the passer with greater fury.

"In a way, I thank him (Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon)," Steelers defensive coordinator Tim Lewis said. "It was kind of a blessing in disguise because we had an opportunity to get exposed to it."

In a span of five weeks, Lewis' pass defense improved from 28th in the league in Week 11 to 16th in Week 15. It was 19th overall in the middle of November, third by weekend before Christmas.

"The fact of the matter is people forced us to do different things early in the year," Lewis said. "Now that we've seen those things, we are better able to handle them. We are more apt to make the right decision at the right time."

Not coincidently, the Steelers, especially the defense, were starting to feel good about themselves again. And, on a team not devoid of talent, attitude could go a long way.

Jerry DiPaola covers the Steelers and NFL for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.