Media Savvy
No Sure Bet
By Alby Oxenreiter

If your travel agent's phone number has already been programmed into your speed dial, then you need to listen. If you've already earmarked the money in your Christmas club for airplane tickets, then stop and think. If you're saving vacation days for some January sunshine, then put it on hold.

Super Bowl XXXVII is still 5 months away, but I'm here to tell that the Steelers won't be there.

I like this team and its proven talent and strong personalities. They're a group of good guys who deserve to win a championship. But I don't believe they will. And one word could change both the course of sports history and the travel plans of all those optimistic fans that like to dress in black and gold. The word is expectations, and it just might be the speed bump that slows this team's b-line to the big game.

When almost everyone picks a team to get to a championship or to win a championship, chances are, it won't happen. The Steelers best team of the seventies fell short. It was 1976, and who would've possibly known that Franco and Rocky would go down at the same time. Reggie Harrison did his best, but the Steelers lost to Oakland in the AFC Title game. For a different reason, the same thing happened to the 1972 Pirates, maybe their best team of the decade. On their road to back-to-back October Classics, Bob Moose threw a wild pitch that derailed the Pirates into an early offseason. The 1993 Penguins had it all, talent, confidence and Stanley Cup savvy, and that spring, they were considered the heavy favorite to make it three consecutive championships. But David Volek…well you know how it ended. The same way Dennis Gibson ended the run of the 1994 Steelers, and how Francisco Cabrero ended the Pirates last great run. Simply put, if it seems too obvious, then it probably is. And with that, let's get back to the Steelers of 2002.

They have a talented team, a potentially soft schedule and an easy division. What seems like a recipe for a championship might actually be a disaster in the making. Predicting One For The Thumb just seems too easy. Furthermore, it could be argued that last season's success was a phenomenon, which is to say, a number of players simultaneously enjoyed career years. There was also the magic of the Heinz Field inaugural season. Whatever the reason, last season was close to perfect…that is until the AFC Championship game.

Well repeating that run will be difficult. Avoiding injuries and overcoming the injuries that inevitably occur is important. Will Kordell Stewart and Jerome Bettis stay healthy? And if so, will they jump to the high bar that's been set? If Jerome isn't up to par, can Amos and Fu pick up the slack? And if the running game is subpar, as it was in pre-season, can Stewart and the passing game carry the team? Without a running game, Kordell was lost in the AFC Championship loss to New England. So were the Steelers' special teams. Can a new special teams coach really make a difference? On defense, can Washington and Scott avoid giving up the big backbreaking play? Can James Farrior and/or John Fiala make us forget about Earl Holmes? These are all legitimate questions.

But in fairness, even strong teams have weaknesses. Another key is negotiating the curves in the road that every team faces over the course of a long season. Having stated my case, it's important to remind you that nothing is ever a sure thing, most especially my prognostication. I'm the first to admit that my crystal ball has been missing for years. With that in mind, get ready for some football and look for me at Heinz Field. I'll be the one hitch hiking…San Diego or bust.

Alby Oxenreiter is sports director for WPGH-TV Fox 53.