NL Central Division Season Preview
If Pitching Holds Up, Bubs Can Win
By John E. Sacco

The St. Louis Cardinals came within inches of defeating Arizona in the National League Championship Series in 2001.

St. Louis seems primed to take another run at a Central Division championship and returning to the World Series.

To do so, the Cardinals must hold off what should be serious challenges from the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros.

Both the Cubs and Astros are dangerous but flawed.

The bottom half of the division is weak with the Pirates, Milwaukee and suddenly sad Cincinnati jockeying for position. None seems capable of vast improvement or even a small challenge to the upper-half of the division.

The following is a preview of the Central race.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

2001 Record: 93-69, tied for division title.

By The Numbers: Have won two consecutive division crowns after a pair of third-place finishes in 1998 and 1999. . . Placido Polanco led National League third baseman in fielding percentage (.985) in 2001.

Manager: Tony La Russa

Key Acquisitions: Tino Martinez, 1B, and Jason Isringhausen, RP.

Keep An Eye On: Martinez because he is replacing Mark McGwire at first base. Martinez, a New York Yankee constant in the past several years, has knocked in 100-runs or more in six of the last seven seasons, but has never posted consecutive 30-home run seasons.

Questions To Be Answered: Can Rick Ankiel or Andy Benes emerge as the No. 5 starter? And is the bench good enough to help the Cardinals withstand injuries?

Everything Is Fine If: Each player in the everyday lineup holds to form, the starting pitching is as good as it should be and Dave Veres and Steve Kline help set up saves for Isringhausen.

The Skinny: To win three division titles in succession is no easy feat. But St. Louis is much the best right now in this lot and it seems only injuries or poor performance can stop it here.

CHICAGO CUBS

2001 Record: 88-74, third-place, 5 games back

By The Numbers: Went 48-33 at home and 48-36 versus division opponents in 2001.

Manager: Don Baylor

Key Acquisitions: Moises Alou, OF, and Alex Gonzalez, SS.

Keep An Eye On: Bobby Hill, 2B, because he just might end up beating out veterans Delino DeShields and Chris Stynes by the middle of the season.

Question To Be Answered: Can the starting pitching repeat its 2001 performance, which was pretty amazing.

Everything Is Fine If: Kerry Wood and Jon Leiber spearhead a starting staff that shuts down the opposition consistently.

The Skinny: The fact of the matter is three-fifths of the Cubs' rotation could revert to old form and make this another miserable season. But the offense with Sammy Sosa, OF, Fred McGriff, 1B, and Alou form one of the most explosive middles of a lineup in the majors.

HOUSTON ASTROS

2001 Record: 93-69, tied for division title.

By The Numbers: Dominated division opponents, going 50-34, and right-handed starters, going 71-57.

Manager: Jimy Williams

Key Acquisitions: Williams

Keep An Eye On: Darlye Ward, OF, who is being given an opportunity to play every day. He has pop and could flourish in a lineup that includes Craig Biggio, 2B, Jeff Bagwell, 1B, Lance Berkman, LF, and Richard Hidalgo, CF.

Question To Be Answered: Is the back end of the starting rotation (Dave Mlicki and Tim Redding/Carlos Hernandez) good enough and how much will Alou be missed?

Everything Is Fine If: Ward hits home runs in bunches, starters Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt repeat their 2001 performances and if Octavio Dotel can set games up for Billy Wagner.

The Skinny: It's asking a lot of Miller and Oswalt to be as good this season as last. But that's what Houston needs. The Astros remain quite talented. But they just never seem to be good enough.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2001 Record: 62-100, sixth place, 31 games back

By The Numbers: A losing season would establish a franchise record 10th straight. The team's 133 errors were almost 20 percent higher than the league average of 111.

Manager: Lloyd McClendon

Key Acquisitions: Pokey Reese, 2B, Kip Wells, SP, and Mike Williams, RP.

Keep An Eye On: Craig Wilson, pinch hitter extraordinaire, who is going to be looked at in right field but will likely settle in at first base.

Question To Be Answered: Who is going to start Opening Day in New York?

Everything Is Fine If: Kris Benson returns fairly early in the season to add a quality arm to the pitching staff and if Reese improves offensively and if Armando Rios can win the right field job to provide a much-needed left-handed bat in the lineup.

The Skinny: GM Dave Littlefield has improved the lineup with a series of trades. How could the lineup get worse, though? The pitching, while lacking anything close to an ace, is much deeper with the trade of Todd Ritchie to the white Sox for three pitchers and the addition of a half-dozen, journeyman-type, major-league caliber pitchers through free agency.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2001 Record: 68-94, 4th place, 25 games back.

By The Numbers: In the past five years, Milwaukee's record is 367-441 (.454).

Manager: Dave Lopes

Key Acquisitions: Eric Young, 2B, Alex Ochoa, RF, and Glendon Rusch, SP.

Keep An Eye On: Nick Nuegebauer, SP, and Chad Fox, RP. These two could make a great difference for the Brewers if they get healthy, stay healthy and perform like it seems they can.

Question To Be Answered: Can new pitching coach Dave Stewart's toughness and intensity rub off and help turn the tide and save Lopes' job?

Everything Is Fine If: Brewers' hitters realize the value of getting on base once in a while and if Richie Sexson, 1B, continues to blast balls out of sight.

The Skinny: Young should help improve the team's on-base percentage and add some spice to an offense the set a record for strikeouts and free swinging.

CINCINNATI REDS

2001 Record: 66-96, 5th place, 27 games back.

By The Numbers: The Reds were a pathetic 27-54 at Cinergy Field, the 54 defeats accounting for 56.3 percent of their total losses in 2001.

Manager: Bob Boone

Key Acquisition: Juan Encarnacion, OF.

Keep An Eye On: Ruben Mateo, OF, acquired from Texas last year. He has the skills and abilities to make it big. But the question is can he overcome the broken leg that he suffered two seasons ago?

Question To Be Answered: Are the Reds really as bad as it seems?

Everything Is Fine If: The owners lock the players out or the players go one strike.

The Skinny: Never did Ken Griffey Jr. ever imagine it would have come to this in his hometown. Cincinnati is a long way from being average. The Reds are in serious decline despite the presence of Sean Casey, 1B, and promising Adam Dunn, OF.